LIMITATIONS FOR DAIRY PRODUCTION IN DEVELOPING-COUNTRIES

Animal products (fish, eggs, meat and milk) provide nearly 53 million [M] tons of edible protein and > 1 billion Mcal of energy/yr. This is equivalent to 53% of the protein and 26% of the energy from cereal grains. The 550 Mtons of milk provides 53% of all animal protein. Present production is equivalent to 0.36 l/capita, but consumption is high in developed countries, 0.5-0.8 l/day but < 2 l in developing countries. From 1969 to 1978 world milk supplies increased 1.4%/yr, but human population grew 2.1%. Comparing rates of increase in cattle numbers (1.1%) and in milk (1.4%) indicates milk per animal has changed little. Land for agricultural cropping increased 1.1%/yr during 1969 to 1978. Expansion of cropping into traditional grazing areas and rise in fossil fuel prices has reduced availability of milk in urban centers of developing countries. Elasticity of demand for milk in developing countries is high, but general market growth is slow because of limits in income growth by the majority of the population. Potential for growth of milk supplies in developing countries is high and affords an opportunity for assistance by dairy scientists in training and research.