FORECASTING OF CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY USING A ONE-DIMENSIONAL STEADY-STATE CLOUD MODEL

A steady-state one-dimensional cloud model is used for forecasts of maximum cloud-top heights, which are taken to be a measure of the strength of convective activity. The way the model is used as well as its verification based on radar observations is described. Results show that with a careful calibration the model produces acceptable results. Model performance is crucially dependent on the proper choice of boundary conditions. Boundary conditions should be seasonally dependent. However, separate calibrations for different weather conditions and mesoscale peculiarities are not necessary for reasonably good results.