AGGREGATE HEALTH-CARE EXPENDITURE IN THE UNITED-STATES - EVIDENCE FROM COINTEGRATION TESTS

Unlike recent studies that are based on international cross-sectional series, this paper attempts to quantify the role of the determinants of aggregate health care expenditure per capita, using time-series data for the period of 1960-87 for the United States. The paper applies the relatively new procedures of unit root testing, cointegration and error-correction modelling. The evidence supports cointegration. Although, the results indicate that per capita income, age of the population, number of practising physicians, and public financing of health care are important determinants, the age structure of the population and number of practising physicians emerge as the major determinants of aggregate health care expenditure in the United States.