A DISAGGREGATE DISCRETE-CHOICE MODEL OF TRANSPORTATION DEMAND BY ELDERLY AND DISABLED PEOPLE IN RURAL VIRGINIA

This paper uses a correlated multinomial logit model and a Poisson regression model to measure the factors affecting demand for different types of transportation by elderly and disabled people in rural Virginia. The major results are: (a) A paratransit system providing door-to-door service is highly valued by transportation-handicapped people; (b) Taxis are probably a potential but inferior alternative even when subsidized; (c) Buses are a poor alternative, especially in rural areas where distances to bus stops may be long; (d) Making buses handicap-accessible would have a statistically significant but small effect on mode choice; (e) Demand is price inelastic; and (f) The total number of trips taken is insensitive to mode availability and characteristics. These results suggest that transportation-handicapped people take a limited number of trips. Those they do take are in some sense necessary (given the low elasticity with respect to mode price or availability). People will substitute away from relying upon others when appropriate transportation is available, at least to some degree. But such transportation needs to be flexible enough to meet the needs of the people involved.