Middle East Vortex: An Unstable Iraq and Its Implications for the Region

Ted Galen Carpenter focuses on an unstable Iraq and its implications for the region. Experts both in the US and in Iraq are concerned that the relative calm that Iraq has enjoyed since mid-2007 might not last once US troops withdraw. Iraq has already is no more a unified state. The Baghdad government plays no meaningful role in the Kurdish region in the north. Indeed, Iraqi Arabs who enter the territory are treated as foreigners and not especially welcome foreigners. There is a significant chance that the already frosty relationship between Baghdad and the Awakening Councils will worsen once the US completes its withdrawal. Eruption of full-scale sectarian fighting could also not be ruled out. The continuing Shiite-Sunni rivalry also has regional implications. Crucial systemic and structural factors make it unlikely that Iraq will ever be a stable, united, democratic country.