CLIMATE CHANGE IN CENTRAL MEXICO: IMPACT ON BARLEY PRODUCTION (Hordeum vulgare) IN TLAXCALA

Historical production of barley for ten years (2003-2012) as well as under climate change scenarios for near future (2015-2039) and for near future (2075-2099) in Calpulalpan, Tlaxcala was evaluated. An assessment of suitable regions for production was performed as well as historical performance and barley considering future climate change scenarios through the model AquaCrop (FAO) also was estimated. Finally, the average production costs in the region were estimated through surveys with barley producers. The results show that over 70% of the area of the municipality has some degree of aptitude for producing barley. Climate change scenarios indicate increases proficiency in 2% of the surface and reductions of up to 16%. The production model shows very close results with those obtained by farmers in the municipality yields (2.53 t/ha), thus estimated future changes show a decline in yields of about 5% up to 100% depending on the future horizon. Considering current production costs, the benefit-cost relationship could be reduced from 1.4 and to 0.0 in the future. This will certainly affect the economy of the producers in the region.