Energy demand and emissions in 2030 in China: scenarios and policy options

Recent rapid growth of energy use in China now exerts great pressure on energy supply and the environment. This study provides scenarios of future energy development and resulting pollutant and greenhouse gas emissions, taking into account the most up-todate data and recent policy discussions that will affect future economic, industrial, and energy supply trends. To address uncertainties, especially those surrounding the level of energy-intensive production in the next several decades, three scenarios were defined, which reasonably represent the range of plausible futures for energy development. The results from quantitative analysis show that energy demand in China could be as high as 2.9 billion toe (tons oil equivalent) in 2030, which could exceed the available energy supply. When compared with previous energy scenario studies, this result is much higher. By using various policy options discussed in the article, however, there is potential to reduce this high demand to 2.4 billion toe in 2030.