The effects of civil wars on post-war state repression

This article analyses the determinants of state repression in post-war periods. Its main argument is that certain civil war dynamics help to explain the variation in state repression in the post-war years. In order to test the influence of civil wars on post-war state repression, the author uses a database that includes all those countries which underwent a civil war over the 1976-2009 period. The results show that a rebel victory or a compromise between the warring factions tend to be followed by tougher post-war repression, whereas secessionist wars are followed by less repressive post-war periods. An especially robust result in the article is that ethnic wars lead to relatively more violent post-war periods, probably due to the fact that the winning side gains information about the likely geographical distribution of potential opposition elements. However, the conventional nature of war or its duration do not seem to affect post-war repression.