A DECISION-SUPPORT SYSTEM FOR DAIRY FARMERS AND ADVISERS

A model has been constructed that is capable of modelling the dairy herd while also taking account of the practical circumstances of the farm business. The model can be used as a decision support system for dairy farmers and advisors. Most of the parameters of the model have been estimated from panel data collected from farms under the Milk Manager Scheme run by the Scottish Agricultural College. Seventeen years data have been used so as to take account of weather cycles. The model has been estimated and constructed on the assumption that each herd is, in effect, on its own response curve. Tests of the accuracy of the system against SAC experimental farm results suggest an accuracy of within 3%. The model has been constructed to work in a 'what if manner so that the results of different managerial strategies can be quickly evaluated., Allowance is also made for the user who disagrees with the responses in the model, by allowing these to be overridden. The paper shows the model being applied to situations where feeding rates are changed, quota is leased, and the calving pattern is changed.