POWER-SYSTEM OPERATING STATE FORECASTING FOR SECURITY ANALYSIS APPLICATIONS

A methodology for power system operating state forecasting with applications in the study mode security analysis is described. Additional application areas are advance or dynamic dispatch and measurement replacement. The operating state is represented by the active and reactive nodal injections which are forecast using a four-step procedure: bus active and reactive load forecast, simulation of the economic dispatch and on-line load flow. The multivariate Box and Jenkins approach and the adaptive Kalman filter are used for the active and reactive bus load forecast, respectively. The results of numerical experiments with the proposed methodology indicate a performance with potential for practical applications.