Navigating China’s carbon neutrality journey: insights from policy instruments and implementation strategies across provincial regions

China’s critical reliance on well-crafted public policies, coupled with the effective execution of central government directives at the local level, drives the achievement of the “dual carbon” goal including the peaking of CO2 emissions and attaining carbon neutrality. Therefore, examining policy records can unveil the holistic strategy for attaining carbon neutrality during the period of peak CO2 emissions; at the same time, it can also highlight the potential obstacles in policy implementation. In this study, we adopt a policy instruments perspective to investigate data related to policies addressing peak CO2 emissions across 29 provincial administrative regions in China. We apply Nvivo12 software to conduct a quantitative literature assessment and content analysis to establish a theoretical framework for the policy process. This framework encompasses dimensions such as political feasibility, regional coordination, attributes of low-carbon initiatives, and policy refinement. Subsequently, we employ the model to carry out a retrospective analysis of policy documents pertaining to peak CO2 emissions in China. Our research findings underscore the pivotal role of political feasibility in shaping policy effectiveness, while also highlighting the facilitative influence of regional coordination, shedding light on the essential synergy between provinces and cities in achieving emissions reduction goals. Similarly, the estimated results highlight the motivating impact of specific attributes within low-carbon initiatives. Moreover, policy enhancements are identified as a critical driver in advancing the path toward carbon neutrality. Consequently, to achieve the objective of carbon neutrality, it is imperative for every province and city to sequentially reach the peak of CO2 emissions. Our research offers a comprehensive “China strategy,” providing valuable insights to guide future policy formulation and accelerate progress toward sustainable environmental objectives.