Estimating the abatement potential of provincial carbon intensity based on the environmental learning curve model in China

Increasing attention has been placed on the evaluation of CO2 abatement potential at national or sectoral level in China due to its largest energy consumption and carbon emission. However, few studies specialize in estimating provincial carbon reduction potential and its provincial differences. This paper estimates the carbon intensity abatement potential in China at provincial scale by exploring an environmental learning curve (ELC) model for carbon intensity. Per capita GDP, the proportion of the tertiary industry in GDP and energy intensity are selected as three independent variables. Based on the ELC model, the carbon intensity reduction potentials of 30 provinces in 2020 are estimated for business-as-usual and planned scenarios. The results indicate that China’s total intensity abatement potential is 34.22 and 37.64 % in the two scenarios, respectively. For all provinces, energy intensity has the strongest positive learning ability among the three variables. Beijing, Tianjin, Liaoning, Jilin and Shanghai play major roles to cut down carbon emission intensity due to their large reduction potentials. However, the intensity reduction potentials in Qinghai, Ningxia, Xinjiang and Hainan are not obvious.