Interannual variability of onset of the summer monsoon over India and its prediction

In this article, the interannual variability of certain dynamic and thermodynamic characteristics of various sectors in the Asian summer monsoon domain was examined during the onset phase over the south Indian peninsula (Kerala Coast). Daily average (0000 and 1200 UTC) reanalysis data sets of the National Centre for Environmental Prediction/National Centre for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) for the period 1948–1999 were used. Based on 52 years onset date of the Indian summer monsoon, we categorized the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset periods (each an average of 5 days) to investigate the interannual variability of significant budget terms over the Arabian Sea, Bay of Bengal, and the Indian peninsula. A higher difference was noticed in low-level kinetic energy (850 hPa) and the vertically integrated generation of kinetic energy over the Arabian Sea from the pre-onset, onset, and post-onset periods. Also, significant changes were noticed in the net tropospheric moisture and diabatic heating over the Arabian Sea and Indian peninsula from the pre-onset to the post-onset period. It appears that attaining the magnitude of 40 m2 s−2 and then a sharp rise in kinetic energy at 850 hPa is an appropriate time to declare the onset of the summer monsoon over India. In addition to a sufficient level of net tropospheric moisture (40 mm), a minimum strength of low-level flow is needed to trigger convective activity over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal. An attempt was also made to develop a location-specific prediction of onset dates of the summer monsoon over India based on energetics and basic meteorological parameters using multivariate statistical techniques. The regression technique was developed with the data of May and June for 42 years (1948–1989) and validated with 10 years NCEP reanalysis from 1990 to 1999. It was found that the predicted onset dates from the regression model are fairly in agreement with the observed onset dates obtained from the Indian Meteorology Department.