Wheat yield functions for analysis of land-use change in China

CERES-Wheat, a dynamic process crop growth model, is specified and validated for eight sites in the major wheat-growing regions of China. Crop model results are then used to test the Mitscherlich-Baule and the quadratic functional forms for yield response to nitrogen fertilizer, irrigation water, temperature, and precipitation. The resulting functions are designed to be used in a linked biophysical-economic model of land-use and land-cover change in China. While both functions predict yield responses adequately, the Mitscherlich-Baule function is preferable to the quadratic function because its parameters are biologically and physically realistic. Variables explaining a significant proportion of simulated yield variance are nitrogen, irrigation water, and precipitation; temperature was a less significant component of yield variation within the range of observed year-to-year variability at the study sites. Crop model simulations with a generic soil with median characteristics of the eight sites compared to simulations with site-specific soils showed that agricultural soils in China have similar and, in general, low-to-moderate water-holding capacities and organic matter contents. The validated crop model is useful for simulating the range of conditions under which wheat is grown in China, and provides the means to estimate production functions when experimental field data are not available.