Decoupling relationship between carbon emissions and economic development and prediction of carbon emissions in Henan Province: based on Tapio method and STIRPAT model

In order to cope with global warming, China has put forward the “30 · 60” plan. We take Henan Province as an example to explore the accessibility of the plan. Tapio decoupling model is used to discuss the relationship between carbon emissions and economy in Henan Province. The influence factors of carbon emissions in Henan Province were studied by using STIRPAT extended model and ridge regression method, and the carbon emission prediction equation was obtained. On this basis, the standard development scenario, low-carbon development scenario, and high-speed development scenario are set according to the economic development model to analyze and predict the carbon emissions of Henan Province from 2020 to 2040. The results show that energy intensity effect and energy structure effect can promote the optimization of the relationship between economy and carbon emissions in Henan Province. Energy structure and carbon emission intensity have a significant negative impact on carbon emissions, while industrial structure has a significant positive impact on carbon emissions. Henan Province can achieve the “carbon peak” goal by 2030 years under the standard and low-carbon development scenario, but it cannot achieve this goal under the high-speed development scenario. Therefore, in order to achieve the goals of “carbon peaking” and “carbon neutralization” as scheduled, Henan Province must adjust its industrial structure, optimize its energy consumption structure, improve energy efficiency, and reduce energy intensity.