The probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along Karnataka Coast from Makran Subduction Zone, west coast of India

Coastal tsunami amplitudes were calculated to identify areas susceptible to tsunami hazard at selected locations of the coast of Karnataka, west of India, due to earthquakes in the Makran Subduction Zone. This is the first time that the probabilistic tsunami hazard assessment along this study area has been attempted. A series of earthquake source scenarios with magnitudes of Mw 8.0, Mw 8.5, and a mega thrust of Mw 9.1 were modeled by using the Community Model Interface for Tsunami interface with the MOST model of Titov and Synolakis (J. Waterway, Port, Coastal and Ocean Engineering, 121(6), 308–316, 1995). As per the previous occurrences, the two least magnitudes are probable, while Mw 9.1 is a worst-case scenario as described by Heidarzadeh et al. (Ocean Engineering, 36(5), 368–376, 2009) and the same is reported by Burbidge et al. (Geoscience Australia Professional Opinion No. 2009/11) as high magnitude. These are not at all historical earthquakes or specifically from historical catalogues. The results of modeling show that all the seven coastal locations are inundated barely in our worst-case scenario with maximum water levels in the range of 100–200 cm. The first tsunami wave strikes the coast within 4–5 h of earthquake occurrence.