The revenue and base effects of local tax hikes: evidence from a quasi-experiment

Due to a reform of the local equalization scheme in 2003, a set of municipalities in the German state of North Rhine-Westphalia (NRW) increased their local property and business tax rates by one to two percentage points, while the remaining municipalities kept their rates constant. I use this variation across municipalities and over time to study the revenue and base effects of local property and business tax hikes in a generalized difference-in-differences design. The results suggest that the property tax hikes had even in the long-run a revenue elasticity of unity. Accordingly, I find no adverse effects on property tax bases. For the business tax, I find no significant effects on revenues and bases. Furthermore, there are also no effects on broader economic outcomes such as local employment, firms’ wage bill, and property prices. Overall, increasing local tax rates by one to two percentage points does not seem to affect the local economy adversely.