Farmers’ knowledge and perception of climatic risks and options for climate change adaptation: a case study from two Tanzanian villages

An in-depth understanding of the multiple layers of factors that shape farmers’ knowledge and perception of climatic risks and their adaptive responses is a prerequisite for well-targeted agricultural adaptation planning. However, while farmers’ perception is increasingly understood as being a key determinant, a conceptual framework that includes this focus of analyses is currently not available. Against this background, this study analyzes the agricultural adaptation context in two Tanzanian villages building on a newly developed agricultural adaptation and perception model (AAP). The AAP contains five dimensions as a frame of reference for empirical adaptation models: non-climatic determinants of vulnerability (1), general trends in livelihood strategies (2), perception of climatic trends (3), climate impacts in agriculture (4) and potentials and obstacles for adaptation (5). Empirical data were collected by applying various tools of rapid rural appraisal, a stakeholder workshop and supplementary interviews. The qualitative data were coded along the dimensions of the AAP and analyzed by means of qualitative content analysis. The results show that adaptation levels, sensitivities of the farming systems as well as perception and narratives about climatic and yield dynamics differ considerably among the two farming communities. Furthermore, farmers’ adaptation responses are influenced by both their framing of climatic trends as well as the multiple benefits that the local agricultural systems provide. Thus, for improving food security in the face of climate change, farmers’ perceptions and the multi-functionality of agricultural systems need to be explicitly recognized by agronomic adaptation research, and adaptation policy making should involve detailed vulnerability assessments.