Changes in the resilience of resprouting juvenile tree populations in temperate forests due to coupled severe drought and fire

Elevated tree mortality and reduced recruitment of new trees linked to drought and fires has been reported across a range of forests over the last few decades. Forests that resprout new foliage epicormically from buds beneath the bark are considered highly resilient to disturbance, but are potentially at risk of elevated mortality, demographic shifts and changes to species composition due to synergistic effects of drought and fire. Despite this, the effects of drought-fire interactions on such forests remain largely unknown. We assessed the effects of drought severity and fire frequency on juvenile mortality, post-fire seedling recruitment and replacement of juvenile trees (balance of recruitment minus mortality) following fire. We compared dry ridgetops and wet gullies (i.e. two forest types that inhabit different topographic positions in the landscape) across a temperate forest in southern Australia. Both forest types experienced higher rates of fire-induced juvenile mortality in areas that had experienced severe drought compared to moderate drought, though mortality rates were generally low across all drought and fire combinations (e.g. < 15%). This result indicated that topographic position did little to reduce juvenile mortality when exposed to severe drought plus fire. In wet forest, severe drought also reduced recruitment and replacement of dead juveniles by post-fire seedlings compared to moderate drought. In dry forest net-negative replacement increased with the severity of drought. Across both forest types, the total pool of juveniles was reduced under severe drought (by 16–79 in DSF; 5–11 in WSF). Future increases in the frequency of coupled severe drought and fire could potentially increase the susceptibility of resilient temperate forests to major changes in structure and function.