Modelling of chronic wound healing dynamics

Following chronic wound area over time can give a general overview of wound healing dynamics. Decrease or increase in wound area over time has been modelled using either exponential or linear models, which are two-parameter mathematical models. In many cases of chronic wound healing, a delay of healing process was noticed. Such dynamics cannot be described solely with two parameters. The reported study deals with two-, three-, and four-parameter models. Assessment of the models was based on weekly measurements of 226 chronic wounds of various aetiologies. Several quantitative fitting criteria, i.e. goodness of fit, handling missing data and prediction capability, and qualitative criteria, i.e. number of parameters and their biophysical meaning were considered. The median of goodness of fit of three- and four-parameter models was between 0.937 and 0.958, and the median of two-parameter moels was 0.821 to 0.883. Two-parameter models fitted wound area over time significantly (p=0.001) worse than three- and four-parameter models. The criterion handling missing data provided similar results, with no significant difference between three- and four-parameter models. Median prediction error of two-parameter models was between 111 and 746; three-parameter models resulted in an error of 64 to 128, and finally four-parameter models resulted in the highest prediction error of 407 and 238. Based on the values of quantitative fitting criteria obtained, three parameters were chosen as the most appropriate. Based on qualitative criteria, the delayed exponential model was selected as the most general three-parameter model. It was found to have good prediction capability and in this capacity it could be used to help physicians choose the most appropriate treatment for patients with chronic wounds after an initial three-week observation period, when the median error increase of fitting is 74%.