Probabilistic approach for estimating heat fluid exit temperature correlation in a linear parabolic trough solar collector

This paper demonstrates a probabilistic modelling approach for establishing the correlation of Heat transfer fluid (HTF) temperature, obtained at the exit of a linear Parabolic trough collector (PTC). For the purpose, an analytical heat transfer (Physical) model was developed and validated by comparing its result with the published values. The correlation was then fitted on a dataset obtained by simulating this physical model over the sampled values acquired by applying the Latin hypercube sampling (LHS) technique over a realistic distribution of factors. The preliminary correlation was based on twenty-six natural, design and operational factors, including normal solar radiation, HTF flow rate, ambient conditions and different attributes associated with geometry and material of the concentrating reflector, receiver, sleeve and selective coating. The coefficient of determination (R2) for correlation was 98.4 %. After analyzing the significance of each factor, a simplified correlation was proposed with only nine factors. The applications associated with this work include the design and simulation of direct and indirect steam generation systems, solar-assisted power generation, space heating, cooling, refrigeration and desalination.