How does population aging affect carbon emissions?—analysis based on the multiple mediation effect model

This paper explores the effect mechanism of population aging on carbon dioxide emissions using provincial panel data in China from 2005 to 2019 and examines how aging affects carbon dioxide emissions through stepwise regression test and Sobel test respectively by constructing a multiple mediating effect model. The following conclusions have been drawn: (1) the results of the baseline regression show that population aging has a significant inhibitory effect on carbon emissions. (2) The results of intermediary effect test show that the intermediary effect of population aging through technological progress, industrial structure, consumption level, and consumption structure is significant. (3) The results of heterogeneity test show that the mediating effect of technological progress is not significant in the eastern region, central region, and western region, and the mediating effect of industrial structure and consumption structure is significant in the eastern region and central region, and the mediating effect of consumption level is significant in the eastern region and western region. (4) The results of the robustness test also verify the mediating effect conclusion once again and prove the robustness of the results. Overall, as an aging society country, China should take the impact of aging into consideration more in the process of achieving emission peak and carbon neutrality.