Testing the Neoclassical Theory of Economic Growth: Evidence from Chinese Provinces

There has been renewed empirical work recently on testing the neoclassical model of economic growth using data on various groups of countries. But none of the cross-country regressions includes China, the largest developing economy in the world. This study utilises both cross-sectional and panel data on provinces of China over the reform period 1978–1995 to examine the extent to which the growth process in this country can be explained by the augmented Solow-Swan model. We found that in spite of restrictive assumptions used, the model provides a fairly good description of cross-sectional data. The levels and growth rates of GDP per capita are shown to be higher in regional economies with lower population growth, greater openness to foreign countries and more investment in physical and human capital. In addition, regional economies are shown to converge both conditionally and unconditionally over the reform period. However, the quantitative implications of the augmented Solow-Swan model are not borne out in panel data.