Multi-scale analysis of China’s transportation carbon emissions based on nighttime light data

This study explores the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of transportation carbon emissions from multiple scales. Based on the integrated DMSP/OLS-NPP/VIIRS nighttime light data, a transportation carbon emission estimation model was constructed, and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of transportation carbon emissions in 30 provinces and some counties in China from 2000 to 2019 were analyzed. The main findings are as follows: (1) The goodness-of-fit of the estimation model improved from 51.2 to 87.15% by introducing the GDP variables. (2) At the provincial scale, the provinces with high carbon emissions from transportation were mainly distributed in the eastern region, with the highest value increasing from 19,171.6 million tons in 2000 to 71,545.98 million tons in 2019. The spatial distribution has a significant and positive spatial spillover effect, and the H–H aggregation was mainly distributed in the east-central region, showing a trend of expansion from the coast to the inland. Trend analysis showed that Shandong, Guangdong, Shanghai, and Jiangsu were areas with a rapid growth of high carbon emissions. (3) The county scale displayed a northeast-southwest evolutionary pattern, with the center of gravity in Henan. The spatial distribution showed a significant spatial agglomeration phenomenon. Trend analysis indicated that the transportation carbon emissions in 184 counties need to be controlled urgently, which was the focus of carbon emission reduction. This paper theoretically enriches the measurement method of transportation carbon emissions and overcomes the problem of insufficient spatial information of statistical data. In practice, it provides a scientific basis for accurate emission reduction and low-carbon development of transportation.