Exploring the impact of natural resources and energy transition on CO2 intensity in China

As reported at the 26th UN Climate Change Conference (COP26), worsening climate situation has led to frequent extreme weather events around the world. The main cause of climate change is carbon emissions from human activities. While realizing rapid economic development, China has become the world’s largest energy consumer and carbon emitter. To achieve the goal of carbon neutrality by 2060, it should reasonably use natural resources (NR) and promote energy transition (ET). In this study based on panel data on 30 Chinese provinces from 2004 to 2020, second generation panel unit root tests were performed after validating slope heterogeneity and cross-sectional dependency. Mean group (MG) estimation and error correction model were used to empirically test the impact of natural resources and energy transition on CO2 intensity (CI). The results show that natural resources exerted adverse effects on CI, whereas ET, economic growth and technological innovation were beneficial to CI. Analysis of heterogeneity indicates that natural resources exerted the greatest impact on CI in central China, followed by west China. Its impact in east China was positive but did not pass significance test. West China achieved the best result in carbon reduction through ET, followed by central China and east China. The robustness of the results was checked with augmented mean group (AMG) estimation. Our policy suggestions are to urge reasonable development and utilization of natural resources, accelerate ET to replace fossil fuels with renewable energy, and implement differentiated policies on natural resources and ET based on regional characteristics.