Potential of low-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (LT-ATES) in Germany

More than 30% of Germany’s final energy consumption currently results from thermal energy for heating and cooling in the building sector. One possibility to achieve significant greenhouse gas emission savings in space heating and cooling is the application of aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) systems. Hence, this study maps the spatial technical potential of shallow low-temperature ATES systems in Germany. Important criteria for efficient ATES operation considered in this assessment encompass suitable hydrogeological conditions, such as aquifer productivity and groundwater flow velocity, and balanced space heating and cooling demands. The latter is approximated by the ratio of heating and cooling degree days, which is incorporated as a time-dependent criterion to also evaluate the impact of climate change on the ATES potential. The hydrogeological and climatic criteria are combined within a spatial analysis revealing that, regarding the upcoming decades, about 54% of the investigated German area are very well or well suitable for ATES applications, largely concentrating on three regions: the North German Basin, the Upper Rhine Graben and the South German Molasse Basin. Considering time-dependent climatic conditions, the very well or well suitable areas will increase by 13% for the time period 2071–2100. This is mostly caused by a large relative area increase of the very well suitable regions due to an increasing cooling demand in the future. The sensitivity of the very well and well suitable regions to the criteria weightings is relatively low. Accounting for existing water protection zones shows a reduction of the country-wide share of very well or well suitable areas by around 11%. Nevertheless, the newly created potential map reveals a huge potential for shallow low-temperature ATES systems in Germany.