Speed of environmental change frames relative ecological risk in climate change and climate intervention scenarios

被引:4
|
作者
Hueholt, Daniel M. [1 ]
Barnes, Elizabeth A. [1 ]
Hurrell, James W. [1 ]
Morrison, Ariel L. [1 ]
机构
[1] Colorado State Univ, Dept Atmospher Sci, Ft Collins, CO 80523 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
RANGE SHIFTS; EXPERIMENTAL-DESIGN; CHANGE IMPACTS; LARGE-SCALE; MARINE; COMMUNITIES; BIODIVERSITY; POPULATION; ADAPTATION; RESPONSES;
D O I
10.1038/s41467-024-47656-z
中图分类号
O [数理科学和化学]; P [天文学、地球科学]; Q [生物科学]; N [自然科学总论];
学科分类号
07 ; 0710 ; 09 ;
摘要
Stratospheric aerosol injection is a potential method of climate intervention to reduce climate risk as decarbonization efforts continue. However, possible ecosystem impacts from the strategic design of hypothetical intervention scenarios are poorly understood. Two recent Earth system model simulations depict policy-relevant stratospheric aerosol injection scenarios with similar global temperature targets, but a 10-year delay in intervention deployment. Here we show this delay leads to distinct ecological risk profiles through climate speeds, which describe the rate of movement of thermal conditions. On a planetary scale, climate speeds in the simulation where the intervention maintains temperature are not statistically distinguishable from preindustrial conditions. In contrast, rapid temperature reduction following delayed deployment produces climate speeds over land beyond either a preindustrial baseline or no-intervention climate change with present policy. The area exposed to threshold climate speeds places different scenarios in context to their relative ecological risks. Our results support discussion of tradeoffs and timescales in future scenario design and decision-making. Hueholt et al. find that considering how the rate of temperature change contributes to ecosystem risk helps inform future hypothetical design of climate intervention scenarios
引用
收藏
页数:11
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