Calculating Risks: Fine’s Mathematical Formula 30 Years Later

Calculating risks, in the sense of giving the risk some objective measure, in an outdoor program may be a highly desirable activity to assist in the process of prioritising the allocation of resources to risk management, however most risk management models, while recommending the assessment or evaluation of risks, do not provide a mechanism to do so. This article draws on a model developed 30 years ago and seeks to demonstrate its potential use in calculating risks in an outdoor and experiential learning environment. The formula is applied to several outdoor scenarios as an example of its use with suggestions of possible actions that may be implemented to minimise the risks. While suggesting a process of risk calculation may imply that risk identification and assessment is an objective process, it is argued here that risk management, even with a mathematical formula, remains a subjective process based upon human judgment.