Response Surface Method Coupled with First-Order Reliability Method Based Methodology for Groundwater Flow and Contaminant Transport Model for the Uranium Tailings Pond Site

Groundwater flow and contaminant transport modelling is carried out to predict the concentrations of radionuclides in groundwater beneath the tailings pond. This is used as a tool for radiological impact assessment studies. The geo-hydrological parameters involved in the modelling exhibit inherent uncertainty associated with their values. This uncertainty may get propagated to the model output, i.e. the dose to the public. The propagation of the uncertainty in the input parameters to the output is modelled using suitable methods of probabilistic analysis. Response surface method coupled with first-order reliability method is used to develop a methodology for estimating the probability that the dose rate value through drinking water pathway at a location around the tailings pond exceeds the WHO guidelines for drinking water, termed as the probability of exceedance of acceptable levels. This method also gives the estimate of sensitivity of the probability of exceedance to the different input parameters. It is observed that the probability of failure decreases as the distance from tailings pond centre is increased and beyond a distance of around 0.5 km from tailings pond centre, the probability reduces to zero. The work also brings out the importance of quantifying the uncertainty in case of actual field problems where there is wide variation in the values of the various parameters within the domain under study.