Probabilistic Flow Duration Curves for Small Hydro Plant Design and Performance Evaluation

This work presents a probabilistic flow duration methodology that can be used as an alternative approach to the design and performance evaluation of small hydro plants. The probabilistic approach aims to quantify the uncertainty influencing the design and the economic outlook of small hydropower projects thus overcoming the limitations of the standard design methodology, which is based on a deterministic approach through the historical flow duration curve at the intake site. A simple probabilistic flow duration curve model is presented and an applied case study of the probabilistic approach to plant design and evaluation is provided based on a typical small hydro plant in a mountainous region of Greece. The results of this study however are not restricted to any particular geographical region and the methodology can be applied in a variety of hydrologic and economic environments.