Long-term emission scenarios for China

被引：2

作者：

Jiang K. ^{[1
]}

Masui T. ^{[2
]}

Morita T. ^{[2
]}

Matsuoka Y. ^{[3
]}

机构：

[1] Center for Energy, Environment and Climate Change, Energy Research Institute, Shahe, Changping County, Beijing

[2] National Institute for Environmental Studies, Onogawa, Tsukuba, Ibaraki

[3] Kyoto University, Yoshida-honmachi, Sakyo-ku, Kyoto

来源：

Environmental Economics and Policy Studies | 1999年 / 2卷 / 4期

关键词：

China; Climate change; Emission scenario; Energy model; Integrated assessment;

D O I：

10.1007/BF03353915

中图分类号：

学科分类号：

摘要：

In order to formulate policies in response to climate change, it is essential to forecast future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions over the long term. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) developed the IS92 emission scenarios in 1992, which have contributed to climate change studies and negotiation activities. Most of these scenarios were developed by research teams in developed countries, and some experts from developing countries have argued that the scenarios did not sufficiently consider the viewpoint of the developing countries. In this paper, we present our study on long-term non-policy emission scenarios for China. This study examines China’s socioeconomic development and energy activities in greater detail. The AIM/emission linkage model was developed for analysis. Seven emission scenarios were derived for China, covering six major gases from energy activities and land use changes. The results show that GHG emissions in China will increase until 2030 accompanying the country’s economic development. However, it is possible for China to maintain low GHG emissions while achieving rapid economic development. © 1999, Springer Japan.

引用

页码：267 / 287

页数：20

共 19 条

[1]

Project Team, A.I.M., A Guide to the AIM/Enduse Model. AIM Interim Paper (1996) IP-95-05, , Tsukuba, Japan:

[2]

Alcamo, J., Bouwman, A., Edmonds, J., Gruebler, A., Morita, T., Sugandhy, A., An evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios (1995) Climate change 1994: radiative forcing of climate change and an evaluation of the IPCC IS92 emission scenarios, pp. 247-304. , Cambridge University Press, Cambridge, UK:

[3]

Argote, L., Epple, D., Learning Curves in Manufacturing (1990) Science, 247, pp. 920-924

[4]

Bruce, J., Lee, H., Haites, E., (1996) Climate Change 1995—Economic and Social Dimensions of Climate Change, WGIII of IPCC, , (eds), Cambridge, University Press, Cambridge, UK:

[5]

China Statistical Yearbook, 1985–1996. China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing

[6]

Edmonds, J., Reilly, J., A long-term global energy-economic model of carbon dioxide release from fossil fuel use (1983) Energy Economics, 5, pp. 75-88

[7]

Edmonds, J., Wise, M., Barns, D., Carbon coalitions: the cost and effectiveness of energy agreement to alter trajectories of atmospheric carbon dioxide emissions (1995) Energy Policy, 23, pp. 309-335

[8]

(1991) China Statistical Publishing House, Beijing Environment Yearbook of China, , State Environment Protection Agency, Beijing:

[9]

Gan, L., Energy development and environmental constraints in China (1998) Energy Policy, 26, pp. 119-128

[10]

Hertel, T., Global Trade Analysis (1997) Cambridge University Press

← 1 2 →