The North Korean nuclear drama: Another "Twenty years' crisis"?

被引:0
|
作者
Eberstadt N. [1 ,2 ]
机构
[1] American Enterprise Institute, Washington, DC
[2] National Bureau of Asian Research (NBR), Seattle, WA
关键词
Korean Peninsula; Nuclear Weapon; Regime Change; Bush Administration; Agree Framework;
D O I
10.1007/s12140-004-0017-8
中图分类号
学科分类号
摘要
For most of the actors embroiled in the drama - the United States, the Republic of Korea (ROK, or South Korea), Japan, China, and Russia - the preferred outcome to the North Korean nuclear crisis would clearly be a comprehensive resolution through peaceful diplomatic negotiations. But in this drama, as in that earlier drama in Europe, the most desirable outcome may also be the least likely. Given the character and objectives of the drama's central actor - namely, the DPRK regime - it is difficult to see how the contending interests of Pyongyang and the other concerned parties could be harmonized through a common dialogue on settlement formulae. This is not to suggest that we shall not see international talks convened, or "breakthroughs" claimed; it is instead to suggest that such talks and breakthroughs are exceedingly unlikely to defuse the ongoing crisis itself.
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页码:49 / 59
页数:10
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