Drought analysis during the growth stages of grape in the main grape-growing regions in China

In China, grape is one of the top five fruit crops for both bearing acreage and production. Recently, national grape production has been stalling because of an increase in drought events. In order to combat the adverse effects of drought on grape production, it is imperative to understand the historical drought trend and frequency during the growing season. In this study, we focused on agricultural drought during the four growth periods of grape: bud break-flowering, flowering-veraison, veraison-berry maturation, and berry maturation-leaf fall. Based on the weather data from 429 meteorological stations, we computed the Crop Water Deficit Index (CWDI) in the five main grape-growing regions of China: Northeast China, North China, Northwest China, Southwest China, and Southeast China. Then, we evaluated the CWDI-based drought distribution and trend in the study regions, as well as the frequency of different degrees of drought. The results showed that exceptional drought was occurring frequently in Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, northern Gansu province, and northern Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region. Among the four study growth periods of grape, exceptional drought was the most expansive during bud break-flowering. What’s more, exceptional drought coverage during bud break-flowering in the study regions was increasing from 1981 to 2016. Analysis of butterfly structure showed that the occurrence of drought was continuous and persistent in northern China. Our study results could serve as guideposts to highlight Chinese grape production industry’s vulnerability to agricultural drought against the background of climate change.