Mathematical Modeling of Climate Change Impact on Relationships of Economic Sectors*

The authors have developed a mathematical model to determine the conditions whereby the rate of increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) concentrations in the atmosphere is minimized, and the given level of life quality of the population is maintained. The model combines in a holistic structure the economic sectors described in the same way. Each of them is considered in terms of the level of productivity, number of jobs, and the level of structural disturbances (the six-sector Lorenz model with variable coefficients that depend on the GHG level). The model makes it possible to investigate how changes in the GHG level and the relationships between different sectors of the economy affect the risks to sustainable development and the general level of the life quality of the population. The authors have determined conditions for the emergence of turbulent operating modes, which lead to an increase in the total number of structural disturbances and a decrease in the aggregate level of productivity. They also proposed an approach to assessing the level of threats to sustainable development under climate changes.