The impact of China's WTO accession on patterns of world trade

This paper evaluates the impact of China's WTO accession on patterns of world trade and economic growth by a recursive dynamic, 17-region, 25-sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model with import embodied technology transfer based on actual market access commitments that China and Taiwan have made to date. The simulation results show that the major gains from WTO accession would accrue to China itself, but the rest of the world, especially developed countries and Asian newly industrialized economies, as well as least developed countries, would also benefit due to the expansion of world trade and improvement of their international terms of trade. Only certain developing countries with an endowment structure similar to China, like those in South America and Southeast Asia, may experience keener competition in labor-intensive exports and lower prices for their products. (C) 2002 Society for Policy Modeling. Published by Elsevier Science Inc. All rights reserved.