The 2007 French Presidential Election

被引：4

作者：

Lemennicier, Bertrand ^{[1
,2
]}

Lescieux-Katir, Hororine ^{[5
,6
]}

Grofman, Bernard ^{[3
,4
]}

机构：

[1] Univ Paris 02, Dept Econ, F-75231 Paris, France

[2] Univ Paris 02, IRGEI, F-75231 Paris, France

[3] Univ Calif Irvine, Dept Polit Sci, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

[4] Univ Calif Irvine, Ctr Study Democracy, Irvine, CA 92697 USA

[5] Univ Paris 02, Dept Econ, F-752 Paris, France

[6] Univ Paris 02, IRGEI, F-752 Paris, France

来源：

CANADIAN JOURNAL OF POLITICAL SCIENCE-REVUE CANADIENNE DE SCIENCE POLITIQUE | 2010年 / 43卷 / 01期

关键词：

D O I：

10.1017/S0008423909990746

中图分类号：

D0 [政治学、政治理论];

学科分类号：

0302 ; 030201 ;

摘要：

We make use of a novel forecasting technique based on the Hotel ling-Downs spatial framework to project vote outcomes in the second round of the two-round French presidential election system. In doing so we take advantage of the high degree of bimodality in the distribution of voter preferences to predict which candidates will make it into the second round. While our principal focus is on the 2007 election, we also look at the seven previous presidential elections in the French Fifth Republic, from 1965 through 2002.

引用

页码：137 / 161

页数：25

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