Predicting Vehicle Crashworthiness: Validation of Computer Models for Functional and Hierarchical Data

被引:32
作者
Bayarri, M. J. [1 ]
Berger, James O. [2 ]
Kennedy, Marc C. [3 ]
Kottas, Athanasios [4 ]
Paulo, Rui [5 ]
Sacks, Jerry [6 ]
Cafeo, John A. [7 ]
Lin, Chin-Hsu [7 ]
Tu, Jian [7 ]
机构
[1] Univ Valencia, Dept Stat & Operat Res, Valencia, Spain
[2] Duke Univ, Dept Stat Sci, Durham, NC 27708 USA
[3] Cent Sci Lab, York YO41 1LZ, N Yorkshire, England
[4] Univ Calif Santa Cruz, Dept Appl Math & Stat, Santa Cruz, CA 95064 USA
[5] Univ Tecn Lisboa, ISEG, Dept Math, Lisbon, Portugal
[6] Natl Inst Stat Sci, Res Triangle Pk, NC 27709 USA
[7] Gen Motors, Res & Dev, Warren, MI 48090 USA
基金
美国国家科学基金会;
关键词
Air bag timing; Bayesian analysis; Bias; Hierarchical modeling; Hypothesis testing; Validation; Vehicle design; GAUSSIAN PROCESS MODELS; BAYESIAN-ANALYSIS; CALIBRATION; SIMULATIONS; DESIGN;
D O I
10.1198/jasa.2009.ap06623
中图分类号
O21 [概率论与数理统计]; C8 [统计学];
学科分类号
020208 ; 070103 ; 0714 ;
摘要
The CRASH computer model simulates the effect of a vehicle colliding against different barrier types. If it accurately represents real vehicle crashworthiness, the computer model can be of great value in various aspects of vehicle design, such as the setting of timing of air bag releases. The goal of this study is to address the problem of validating the computer model for such design goals, based on utilizing computer model runs and experimental data from real crashes. This task is complicated by the fact that (i) the output of this model consists of smooth functional data, and (ii) certain types of collision have very limited data. We address problem (iii) by extending existing Gaussian process-based methodology developed for models that produce real-valued Output. and resort to Bayesian hierarchical modeling to attack problem (ii). Additionally, we show how to formally test if the computer model reproduces reality. Supplemental materials for the article are available online.
引用
收藏
页码:929 / 943
页数:15
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