Atmospheric issues for fire management in Eastern Indonesia and Northern Australia

Using the McArthur Fire Danger Index as a framework for discussion, this paper provides an overview of atmospheric issues of fire management in the tropics, with particular reference to eastern Indonesia and northern Australia. After a brief discussion of the background meteorology of the region, atmospheric influences on regional fire regimes that may operate over a range of time scales are examined. Longer-term influences associated with predicted greenhouse warming suggest an increased fire danger for the region. Inter-seasonal and inter-annual climate variabilities associated with the El Nino-Southern Oscillation phenomenon are also shown to impact on the regional fire regime. While impacts of seasonal drought associated with the north-south movement of the inter-tropical convergence zone (ITCZ) are well known to fire managers, general atmospheric transport patterns associated with movement of the ITCZ are not. Some results of recent trajectory modelling are presented to elucidate these patterns. Intra-seasonal and synoptic-scale influences on regional fire regimes, especially as they impact southern parts of the region, are also discussed. Finally, suggestions are made about some priority areas for further research.