On collection size and retrieval effectiveness

The relationship between collection size and retrieval effectiveness is particularly important in the context of Web search. We investigate it first analytically and then experimentally, using samples and subsets of test collections. Different retrieval systems vary in how the score assigned to an individual document in a sample collection relates to the score it receives in the full collection; we identify four cases. We apply signal detection (SD) theory to retrieval from samples, taking into account the four cases and using a variety of shapes for relevant and irrelevant distributions. We note that the SD model subsumes several earlier hypotheses about the causes of the decreased precision in samples. We also discuss other models which contribute to an understanding of the phenomenon, particularly relating to the effects of discreteness. Different models provide complementary insights. Extensive use is made of test data, some from official submissions to the TREC-6 VLC track and some new, to illustrate the effects and test hypotheses. We empirically confirm predictions, based on SD theory, that P@n should decline when moving to a sample collection and that average precision and R-precision should remain constant. SD theory suggests the use of recall-fallout plots as operating characteristic (OC) curves. We plot OC curves of this type for a real retrieval system and query set and show that curves for sample collections are similar but not identical to the curve for the full collection.