The effect of artificial intelligence on China's labor market

被引:87
作者
Zhou, Guangsu [1 ]
Chu, Gaosi [2 ]
Li, Lixing [3 ]
Meng, Lingsheng [4 ]
机构
[1] Renmin Univ China, Sch Lab & Human Resources, Beijing, Peoples R China
[2] Baidu Inc, Beijing, Peoples R China
[3] Peking Univ, Natl Sch Dev, Beijing, Peoples R China
[4] Chinese Univ Hong Kong, Dept Econ, Hong Kong, Peoples R China
基金
中国国家自然科学基金;
关键词
Artificial intelligence (AI); Internet of things (IoT); Council of Economic Advisers (CEA); EMPLOYMENT; JOBS; FUTURE; GROWTH;
D O I
10.1080/17538963.2019.1681201
中图分类号
F [经济];
学科分类号
02 ;
摘要
Automation and artificial intelligence technology have played a pivotal role in today's economic and social development. They represent a labor-substituted technological progress, featuring more and more jobs to be replaced by AI. Based on the adoption rate calculated in our paper and theoretical substitution probability estimated by existing studies, our research estimates the actual substitution probability by AI for various occupations in China. By using this actual substitution probability on occupation level, we also explore the substitution effects on labor force with different characteristics and find that AI has larger substitution impacts on labors of female, old age, low education and low income. We also predict the number of employed people that would be replaced by AI in each industry, and the results show that China will have 278 million labors (201 similar to 333 million under different adoption rates) replaced by AI by 2049, representing 35.8% of the current employment in China.
引用
收藏
页码:24 / 41
页数:18
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