Sigmoid Models for Covid-19 Pandemic

被引:0
|
作者
Konstantinov, M. [1 ]
Konstantinov, K. [2 ]
Konstantinov, S. [3 ]
机构
[1] Univ Architecture & Civil Engn, Sofia 1046, Bulgaria
[2] Sofia Univ St Kl Ohridski, Sofia 1000, Bulgaria
[3] Univ Paris 1 Pantheon Sorbonne, F-75231 Paris 05, France
关键词
D O I
10.1063/5.0041728
中图分类号
TP301 [理论、方法];
学科分类号
081202 ;
摘要
Several static models for description of the Covid-19 pandemic arc considered, analyzed and compared. The best models relative to this pandemic (generalized fractional-power model and generalized inverse tangent model) are new. These and other non-symmetric models are user friendly and show a good agreement with the official data for the pandemic in Europe. The best models give less than 1% error for a 20-day prediction period and less than 1.5% error for a 40-day prediction period. Recommendations for the use of the models are made. The results obtained may be used in the analysis of possible new waves of Covid-19 in different countries, in Europe and worldwide. Such waves seem more and more likely.
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