Forest dynamics and climate sensitivity of an endangered Carolina hemlock community in the southern Appalachian Mountains, USA

During the last century, the eastern United States has functionally lost two major tree species (American chestnut and American elm), two more, eastern and Carolina hemlock, will likely be functionally extinct during much of their ranges by 2050. Carolina hemlock forests are geographically limited to high elevations in the southern Appalachian Mountains and are considered to be endangered. We collected forest stand, composition, and tree age data at the beginning of a hemlock woolly adelgid (HWA) infestation. Prior to the arrival of HWA, Carolina hemlocks were healthy and densely populated in the overstory and understory. While Carolina hemlock regenerated successfully and continuously from 1850 to 2010, the development of this Carolina hemlock forest will be altered by the HWA and may result in an increase in the density of northern red oak, white oak, mountain laurel, and Catawba rhododendron. Carolina hemlocks prefer cool, wet summers with older trees experiencing greater reductions in radial growth than younger trees during droughts. This study demonstrates that dendrochronological techniques can provide critical annual information on Carolina hemlock forest development and tree age-climate response. Our results provide a multicentury perspective for conservation efforts and management of Carolina hemlock forests in the southern Appalachian Mountains.