Calibration of the zooplankton community size spectrum as an indicator of change in Canadian Shield lakes

Developing the crustacean zooplankton community size spectrum into an indicator of change in lakes requires quantification of the natural variability in the size spectrum related to broad-scale seasonal, annual, and spatial factors. Characterizing seasonal patterns of variation in the size spectrum is necessary so that monitoring programs can be designed to minimize the masking effects that seasonal processes can have on detecting longer-term temporal change. We used a random effects model to measure monthly, annual, and interlake variability in the slope (i.e., relative abundance of small and large organisms) and centered height (i.e., total abundance) of the crustacean zooplankton normalized abundance size spectrum from 1981 to 2011 among eight Canadian Shield lakes. Consistent with theoretical predictions, the slope was a relatively stable characteristic of the zooplankton community compared with the height, which varied significantly among lakes. We identified a seasonal signal in height and slope and used a mixed effects model to characterize the linear rate of change from May to October; there was an overall decline in height and an overall increase in slope. Seasonal variance was greater than annual variance for both the height and the slope, suggesting that long-term monitoring of lakes and interlake comparisons using zooplankton size spectra should be based on temporally standardized sampling protocols that minimize the effects of seasonal processes. We recommend sampling the zooplankton community in midsummer because this results in size spectrum estimates close to seasonal mean values.