Dependent dual-record system estimation of number of events: a capture-mark-recapture strategy

This paper discusses the use of the capture-mark-recapture (CMR) technique - for the estimation of the total number of individuals or events for bird, fish, animal, or human populations - when data are available from two dependent sources of information (SOIs). Specifically, the CMR stochastic models developed by Jolly and Seber, which assume independent samples, are modified to allow for dependence (source correlation) between SOIs, a reality in most situations. Accordingly, valid estimates regarding the biodiversity for certain species or populations in the environment and the prevalence of rare events, such as environmental insults, can be obtained for better decision-making. Moreover, coverage of various SOIs can be corrected for, thus improving their quality, A numerical application is given in which the proposed estimates of vital events, based on data from the vital registration system and a one-shot survey, are adjusted for dependence between sources and compare favorably to other estimates suggested in the literature. Copyright (C) 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.