The Impact of Prenatal Exposure to Ramadan on Child Anthropomorphic Outcomes in Pakistan

Objectives This study analyzes the intent-to-treat effect of prenatal exposure to Ramadan (the Islamic month of fasting) on outcomes including stunting and underweight for children under age 5 years in Pakistan born between 2003 and 2018. Methods The study uses observational data from four rounds of the UN-supported Multiple Indicator Cluster Survey (MICS) data collected on 204,186 children under-5 from Punjab, Pakistan in 2007-2008, 2010-2011, 2013-2014, and 2017-2018. Excluding data on outliers and observations with incomplete data, multivariate logistic regression analysis was conducted on the appended cross-sectional data of 179,943 children under-5 to assess the risk of stunting or underweight according to the month of gestation coinciding with Ramadan. Results We observe a significant increase in the risk of stunting and underweight associated with exposure to Ramadan following an inverted-U pattern. The peak impact of Ramadan exposure on a child being underweight occurs in the third month of pregnancy, where the probability of being underweight is 20 percent higher as compared to children whose gestation did not coincide with Ramadan. The peak impact of Ramadan exposure on stunting occurs in the fourth month of pregnancy, where the probability of stunting is 22 percent higher as compared to children whose gestation did not coincide with Ramadan. These results vary little by gender. In contrast, exposure to Ramadan in the ninth month of gestation is associated with a reduction in the risk of stunting for boys and underweight for both boys and girls. Conclusions for Practice Our analysis indicates that prenatal exposure to Ramadan during the first two trimesters have negative implications for children's growth. The study highlights the critical role of maternal habits during early pregnancy, especially nutritional intake, for the long-term physical development of children.