Path Analysis on Factors Stimulating Cultivated Land Increase in Heilongjiang Province

This paper discussed the effect of the driving factors of cultivated land change in Heilongjiang Province, by using the statistics from 1978 to 2007. The results showed that the total area of cultivated land was increasing dynamically, which was different from other provinces in China. The driving factors were analyzed by correlation analysis, regression analysis and path analysis by adopting some statistic software, such as, Excel and SPSS. The effect of driving factors ranked in the order of total power of agriculture machinery, GDP, rural investment in fixed assets, number of population at the year-end, yield of grain per hectare, urbanization level, and the ratio of total sown areas of grain crops to that of farm corps. Total power of agriculture machinery and GDP were the direct driving factors that cause cultivated land change, meanwhile, the fixed assets investment in rural areas, number of population at the year-end, yield of grain per hectare and urbanization level were the indirect ones. The result indicates that high correlation coefficients of the direct driving factors may ineffective, or vice versa. Therefore, when it comes to the protection of cultivated land, all the driving factors must be considered and comprehensive measures must be adopted so as to promote the new countryside construction in Heilongjiang Province.