The Negative Impact of Uncertainty on R&D Investment: International Evidence

Previous studies have not provided consistent conclusions regarding the impact of uncertainty on research and development (R&D) investment. While most of the previous literature has focused only on one or a small group of countries, this study examines the effect of uncertainty on R&D on the basis of a sample covering 109 countries from 1996 to 2018. The country-level uncertainty is measured using the "World Uncertainty Index", which has recently been developed by Ahir et al. (2018). By estimating a panel data fixed-effects regression model, it is found that uncertainty has a significantly negative impact on R&D investment at the country-level aggregate scale. We also find that uncertainty depresses the number of R&D personnel and patent applications, although the effect on R&D personnel is not statistically significant. These findings imply that high uncertainty poses a considerable threat to global innovation and technological progress. Heterogeneity analyses across different country groups demonstrate that, although the impact of uncertainty on R&D is not statistically significant in some country groups, its effect is always negative and no positive effect is observed.