Identification of potential areas for expansion of arabica coffee in the region of the Matas de Minas, state of Minas Gerais, Brazil

Minas Gerais is the largest producer state accounting for half of Brazil's total coffee production. Located in the east of the state, the Matas de Minas region is highlighted as the second largest producing region. In view of the great potential of this region, studies related to the identification of new areas for implantation of coffee plantations are necessary. In this context, the objective of this study was to model the distribution of Coffea arabica for the Matas de Minas region, as well as to identify new areas for implantation of this cultivar and the variables that most influence modeling. The generation of the model was done with the software MaxEnt. The coffee distribution in Matas de Minas was analyzed based on the map generated by the MaxEnt program. As a result, the value of 0.816 was obtained for the AUC (Area under the curve), indicating good accuracy of the model. It was also observed that the Annual Maximum and Average Temperature (both current) and Altitude were the variables that most influenced the modeling. It was also possible to infer that the area with the greatest potential for the expansion of Arabica coffee cultivation is located around the Alto Caparao region, and also that the generated model presented good predictive capacity, it is an important instrument for the decision-making in the coffee industry of Minas Gerais, as well as to guide the producers themselves where efforts should be invested to expand the coffee park in the Matas de Minas region.