Using a maximum simplicity paleoclimate model to simulate millennial variability during the last four glacial periods

Many studies have documented the existence of millennial-scale variability in the Earth system during the last glacial period. An increasing number of studies document the occurrence of similar millennial variability during glacial periods previous to the last one. Here we use the simplest possible thermal-bipolar seesaw model to consider this variability for the last four glacial periods. We invert this model and use the high-pass filtered Vostok stable isotope records to make a first, tentative, attempt to estimate high-latitude N. Hemisphere temperature variability over the last four glacial periods, beyond the reach of Greenland ice-core records. The model result is compared against the Vostok methane record, which shows rapid variations in parallel to Greenland temperature records during the last glacial period. A further comparison is carried out against the planktonic oxygen isotope of north Atlantic core ODP 980. There is agreement between the records on the existence of similar millennial-scale variability during the last three glacial periods with very similar characteristics to the variability during the last glacial cycle. (c) 2006 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.