Sustainable land use with agrivoltaics: photovoltaics diffusion in harmony with food production. Scenario analysis on the agricultural land demand by photovoltaics in Germany until 2050

Germany's Sustainable Development Strategy sets the goals to reduce "land take" for housing, industry, roads or recreational purposes to 30 hectares per day by 2030 and to "no net land take" by 2050 ("circular economy for land and soils"). Simultaneously Germany plans to increase the share of ground-mounted photovoltaics (PV-GM). Yet, PV-GM accounts to industry land take and thus the two targets are contradictory. The expected area of arable land taken for PV-GM till 2050 is simulated. For a second simulation, PV-GM diffusion is partially substituted by agrivoltaics. Finally, the arable land demand in both scenarios is compared and evaluated according to the German policy goals. Agri-PV dissemination, when replacing PV-GM, could preserve approximately 60,000 hectares of arable land and thus reduce land take increase significantly. Political recommendations for sustainable land management and Agri-PV implementation finalize the article.